ELAM: GDP Rises 3.2%, Markets Still at Resistance

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Friday he known as the Group of the Petroleum Exporting International locations and instructed the cartel to decrease oil costs.

“Gasoline costs are coming down. I known as up OPEC, I stated you’ve acquired to carry them down. You’ve acquired to carry them down,” Trump instructed reporters.

Yahoo Finance Friday

I nominate this quote because the official begin of the Political Foolish Season, the Race to Election Day November 2020.

I assumed the Democrats had that award within the bag however clearly the Donald was to not be outdone.

The assumption private motion can management the value of oil (or anything) on a world-wide foundation is the very opiate of politicians. They need us to imagine they’ll carry out magic. If this have been true, oil costs wouldn’t dramatically swing from $42 to $66 and again to $62. However they as an alternative just do that. Count on extra wild guarantees from each side over the subsequent 18 months.

As we now have famous right here so usually, social temper in the direction of speculating on oil costs in addition to pricing oil as an financial commodity determines worth.

Crude oil lastly topped $66 earlier this week. The media credited Trump’s squeeze on Iranian oil. However hey three days later Trump claims to have lowered costs. Certainly at present oil is buying and selling for $62.57, down four% simply at present. The extra doubtless cause is that

>>WTIC is up 50% from $42 to $66 since late December, 2018.

>>Momentum indicators are in the way in which overbought zone

>>There isn’t any scarcity of provide

This drop whacked the Power ETF XLE which had simply topped its 200-day Transferring common, down 1.76% at present. XES Power Service ETF by no means acquired near its 200 day MA. This has been a continued supply of concern to me as famous in lots of columns.

The GDP was up three.2% for 1Q 2019. That is excellent news however has not moved the inventory markets any additional. Three weeks in the past we urged warning on this house, noting markets had returned to their October three highs the place they promptly reversed, falling four,000 DJA factors.

Now we have additionally had our eye on the valuable metals markets We steered this week would inform if gold managed to begin forming a backside. And right here on the finish of the week, gold has reversed from its Tuesday low at $1,270 to $1,289. This week somebody purchased 200,000 places on UUP, the greenback ETF. A put is a guess the Greenback will fall sufficient by the third Friday of June to make this a worthwhile commerce. The rise in gold and silver could also be confirming an over purchased US Greenback.

dennislelam@gmail.com

 Dennis Elam is an assistant professor at Texas A&M San Antonio and a 1966 graduate of Andrews Excessive College and blogs at www.themarketperspective.com

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