By Doug Winter – RareGoldCoins.com ……
CoinWeek Content material Associate ……
For collectors and sellers alike, precisely pricing a coin stays maybe essentially the most troublesome course of in all of numismatics. This shouldn’t be the case as there are quite a few worth guides who provide years of expertise and experience to help collectors and sellers. Sadly, none of those are 100% correct as many cash are exceptionally troublesome to cost.
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In my view, the flaw behind worth guides is that they try to commoditize cash. Of their eyes, all 1904 double eagles graded MS64 are value the identical. However we all know this isn’t the case.
In each collection, there are a number of ranges of worth for every particular challenge. This is because of the truth that, truthful or not, the market perceives that there are 4 tiers of grade for every coin (not factoring in plus grades or grade modifiers comparable to “star” or “Prooflike”, or coloration and strike).
These tiers are as follows:
PCGS with CAC
NGC with CAC
PCGS with out CAC
NGC with out CAC
This in and of itself results in confusion however there are extra elements to contemplate when evaluating a coin’s worth: How authentic is it? How colourful is it? How uncommon is it? How in demand is it?
I’m going to pick 5 pretty random (and completely hypothetical) examples of higher date gold cash and talk about how I might give you a good retail worth for every one. To assist us with base ranges for every challenge we’ll use the CDN, the NGC Value Information and the PCGS Value Information. We may also use latest public sale costs (APRs).
1. 1839-O Quarter Eagle NGC EF45
Our first coin is a decent-quality however not likely alternative NGC EF45 1839-O quarter eagle.
That is an especially well-liked challenge as a consequence of its standing as a one-year sort and because the very first quarter eagle from New Orleans. It’s a pretty widespread challenge in Extraordinarily Wonderful however at this worth level, it’s in demand.
NGC: No worth listed
Current APRs for NGC EF45: $2,760 (three/18), $2,820 (11/16)
That is a straightforward coin to cost. There are two moderately present APRs and the coin itself is nothing particular. I’d say $2,650-2,950 is a good vary.
On this case, the printed worth guides are a bit on the excessive facet.
2. 1855-S Three PCGS/CAC MS61
Our second coin is a really alternative, fresh-out-of-the woodwork 1855-S Three Greenback graded MS61 by PCGS and accredited by CAC.
This isn’t essentially a very talked-about coin however it is rather uncommon and fascinating. A fast search of this imaginary coin reveals a inhabitants of only one in MS61 with one finer (an MS62+ that offered for $55,225).
CDN: $30,000 (MS60)
NGC: $36,300 (MS60)
PCGS: $32,500 (MS61)
Current APRs for MS61: None, however a PCGS AU58 CAC introduced $18,800 in late 2016, and the aforementioned PCGS MS62+ realized $55,225 in early 2016.
That is an especially exhausting coin to cost. As a uncommon date gold specialist, I’m conscious that the Three Greenback collection is lastly exhibiting indicators of life after years of stagnation. I might be a keen purchaser for this 1855-S given it’s a inhabitants one with one finer coin (which is numismatically vital), and which might be the one instance of this date accredited by CAC in Uncirculated.
I feel this date is now value not less than $20,000 in PCGS/CAC AU58 and the two/16 APR for the PCGS MS62+ presently appears kind of low-cost; as we speak it’s simply a $60,000+ coin. Given this knowledge, evidently $40,000 is the precise quantity for our MS61 as it’s halfway between a pleasant AU58 and an MS62+. May I see it priced larger? Completely, and I actually wouldn’t cross at $45,000, however $50,000 seems like too excessive of a quantity.
As you’ll be able to see, pricing a coin like that is kind of like throwing a dart at a board. You must use your experience and your really feel when establishing a worth for a really uncommon however thinly traded coin.
For this coin, printed worth guides aren’t particularly useful. Hopefully, after this coin was offered, worth guides can be modified to replicate this transaction.
three. 1873-CC Half Eagle, PCGS AU50
Our third coin is a barely above common PCGS AU50 1873-CC half eagle. This hypothetical coin has been to CAC and it wasn’t accredited however it’s good sufficient to be in my stock.
Any collector with primary information of the Carson Metropolis half eagle collection is aware of that the 1873-CC is scarce in all grades and it’s fairly uncommon in correctly graded AU.
Current APRs for PCGS AU50: $25,850 (5/18) and $21,150 (2/14). These are the one two data for PCGS AU50; the newest NGC file is $21,150 in 1/13.
Regardless of this coin’s rarity and the long-time reputation of CC half eagles, this isn’t a date collectors appear to understand and I’ve had bother promoting the previous couple of I’ve owned, making me unlikely to be an aggressive purchaser of this coin except it was actually alternative.
The latest APR is present sufficient that I’d wish to worth one other instance barely beneath that file to make it transfer extra rapidly. So, although there’s only a single file for a PCGS AU50 within the final 5 years, I’d in all probability wish to pay round $22,000-24,000 for this coin and promote it as $25,000-27,000.
On this case, printed worth guides are moderately correct.
four. 1841-O Eagle, PCGS AU50 CAC
Our fourth coin is a very nice PCGS/CAC AU50 1841-O eagle. It’s precisely graded and authentic; not an improve however very good.
No Motto New Orleans eagles are presently very talked-about and this is likely one of the rarest points within the collection. A fast glimpse at inhabitants figures exhibits seven graded AU50 by PCGS with eight finer (these numbers are virtually actually inflated) whereas CAC has accredited only a single coin with two finer. Clearly, it is a nice coin and one I might be an aggressive purchaser of.
Current APRs for PCGS AU50s: The final sale was in 6/2007 at $23,000 whereas the final NGC AU50 was $21,150 in 9/16. On this case, I’d take a look at AU53 APRs as nicely, and the final PCGS AU53 offered for $25,850 in 1/14.
In my view, basal worth for a really common high quality AU50 instance of this date is not less than $25,000. Since our hypothetical coin is each PCGS and CAC (and good), I can simply see paying $30,000-32,500 for it and would moan and complain at $35,000 however would nonetheless doubtless write a test. I might then worth it at $37,500-42,500 relying on the circumstances. Sure, that’s some huge cash however it is a actually good coin with a big pool of potential consumers.
On this case, all printed worth data is nicely too low. That is attributable to those sources not realizing how vital a coin that is and, as I acknowledged above, not all AU50s being created equal.
5. 1879-S Double Eagle, NGC MS62 CAC
Our fifth and closing coin is an NGC/CAC 1879-S double eagle graded MS62. Let’s assume this coin is very nice; not more likely to improve to MS63 however a digital lock to cross if submitted to PCGS.
The 1879-S is a really funky date which has an enormous worth unfold between MS62 and MS63. A mean high quality MS62 is value round $9,000, whereas an MS63 is probably going value in extra of $30,000. Solely eight have been graded MS63 by PCGS (none by NGC), however with 99 graded MS62 by PCGS (plus 53 by NGC) the probabilities are good that not less than just a few cash will gradeflate into MS63 holders.
Current APRs for PCGS or NGC MS62s with CAC approval: $13,200 (four/18; PCGS), $18,600 (four/17; NGC), $14,100 (eight/16; PCGS), and $14,100 (four/16; NGC).
Sufficient of those in MS62/CAC have traded within the final 12 months to notice that costs are trending downwards on this date/grade. This is because of a big hoard of US gold cash come into the market from abroad sources. This hoard contains quite a few early Sort Three double eagles from San Francisco and the market is reacting to this elevated provide by dropping in worth.
Even the final NGC/CAC MS62 traded for $18,600 in April 2017, I view this as an outlier. I might in all probability wish to be on this coin at round $11,000 in order that I might worth it beneath CDN Bid; say at round $12,250 or so.
On this case, the printed worth data is simply too excessive because it doesn’t take into consideration the market dynamics which are reshaping Sort Three double eagles.
Some better-date US gold cash are very simple to cost however the majority of them aren’t. All kinds of things affect the market, starting from the standard of the particular coin to the rarity of a difficulty to its degree of demand and to exterior forces comparable to hoards. Collectors and sellers who focus an excessive amount of on printed worth knowledge will discover it irritating to purchase alternative and uncommon points. It’s my opinion that solely with years of private remark and expertise can collectors correctly worth these points.
What are your ideas about uncommon coin pricing? Please be happy to share them within the Feedback part beneath.
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About Doug Winter
Doug has spent a lot of his life within the area of numismatics; starting gathering cash on the age of seven, and by the point he was 10 years outdated, shopping for and promoting cash at conventions within the New York Metropolis space.
In 1989, he based Douglas Winter Numismatics, and his agency focuses on shopping for and promoting alternative and uncommon United States cash, particularly US gold cash and all department mint materials.
Acknowledged as one of many main specialised numismatic corporations, Doug is an award-winning writer of over a dozen numismatic books and the acknowledged knowledgeable on US Gold. His information and an distinctive eye for correctly graded and authentic cash has made him one of the crucial revered figures within the numismatic group and a wanted vendor by collectors and traders on the lookout for skilled personalised service, a choose stock of impeccable high quality and truthful and sincere pricing. Doug can be a serious purchaser of all US cash and is all the time seeking to buy collections each giant and small. He could be reached at (214) 675-9897.
Doug has been a contributor to the Guidebook of United States Cash (also referred to as the “Redbook”) since 1983, Walter Breen’s Encyclopedia of United States and Colonial Cash, Q. David Bowers’ Encyclopedia of United States Silver and Andrew Pollock’s United States Sample and Associated Points
As well as, he has authored 13 books on US Gold cash together with:
Gold Cash of the New Orleans Mint: 1839-1909
Gold Cash of the Carson Metropolis Mint: 1870 – 1893
Gold Cash of the Charlotte Mint: 1838-1861
Gold Cash of the Dahlonega Mint 1838-1861
The US $three Gold Items 1854-1889
Carson Metropolis Gold Coinage 1870-1893: A Rarity and Situation Census Replace
An Insider’s Information to Amassing Sort One Double Eagles
The Connoisseur’s Information to United States Gold Cash
A Collector’s Information To Indian Head Quarter Eagles
The Acadiana Assortment of New Orleans Coinage
Sort Three Double Eagles, 1877-1907: A Numismatic Historical past and Evaluation
Gold Cash of the Dahlonega Mint, 1838-1861: A Numismatic Historical past and Evaluation
Sort Two Double Eagles, 1866-1876: A Numismatic Historical past and Evaluation
Lastly, Doug is a member of nearly each main numismatic group, skilled commerce group and main coin affiliation within the US.